THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM

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THE NETHER LANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM?. WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE SOCIOLOGIQUE DU CHANGEMENT PARIS - APRIL 27, 2007. THE LARGER PART OF MY PRESENTATION CONCERNS THE MENDRAS QUESTION
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THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE SOCIOLOGIQUE DU CHANGEMENT PARIS - APRIL 27, 2007 THE LARGER PART OF MY PRESENTATION CONCERNS THE MENDRAS QUESTION DID SOMETHING LIKE THE SECOND FRENCH REVOLUTION TAKE PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS BETWEEN 1965 AND 1984? I ALSO DISCUSS THE FIRST DUTCH REVOLUTION AND A POSSIBLE RECENT THIRD ONE THE SHORT ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION YES, IT DID IN THE SENSE THAT AN OPEN MIDDLE CLASS EMERGED A LARGE GROUP OF TECHNICALLY, ADMINISTRATIVELY AND COMMERCIALLY HIGHLY SKILLED PERSONS THE LONG ANSWER BUT A CHANGE FROM WHAT TO WHAT? THE STARTING POINT OF THE SECOND REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS IS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THAT COUNTRY THAT OUTCOME FEATURES THE RELIGION OF PERSONS RELIGIOUS CHANGES AND THEIR AFTERMATH MAKE UP THE SECOND REVOLUTION THAT REVOLUTION BEGAN IN THE MID 1950s IT STILL IS NOT OVER ALTHOUGH A THIRD REVOLUTION NOW MAY BE UNDERWAY DUTCH SOCIETY CONSISTED OF PERSONS BELONGING TO VARIOUS RELIGIONS UNTIL THE MID 1950s THERE WERE FEW PERSONAL TIES BETWEEN THESE PERSONS WITH EACH DENOMINATION HAVING ITS OWN ORGANISATIONS DUTCH SOCIETY WAS NOT SO MUCH STRATIFIED DUTCH SOCIETY WAS PILLARIZED MY LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION: RELIGIONS THE PILLARS OF DUTCH SOCIETY CRUMBLED BY EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC AND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS BUT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS DELAYED THEIR COLLAPSE HERE I WILL NOT HUNT FOR OTHER EFFECTS OF EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION LIKE * SMALLER INCOME INEQUALITIES * MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY * LESS EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY * LOWER LEGITIMACY OF HIGH CULTURE BUT FOR EFFECTS OF A STEEP RELIGIOUS DECLINE * PARTICULARLY ULTRA-LIBERALISM THE NETHERLANDS RELIGIONS AND THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION THE RELIGIOUS SITUATION IN THE NETHERLANDS BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND ‘FRENCH’ REVOLUTION WAS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION WITH HELP FROM THE FRENCH ARMY IN 1795 THE DUTCH PATRIOTS WHO HAD BEEN EXILED IN 1787 TO FRANCE COMMITTED A COUP D’ETAT IN THE NETHERLANDS THE PRE-1795 GOVERNMENT WAS IN A PERPETUAL DEADLOCK BEGINNING OF THE SECOND ‘FRENCH’ REVOLUTION SINCE EACH OF THE SEVEN PROVINCES MAKING UP THE NETHERLANDS HAD A VETO ABOUT STATE DECISIONS THE PATRIOTS DID AWAY WITH THE VETO RULE IN PRE-1795 DAYS ONLY PROTESTANT PERSONS COULD HOLD PUBLIC OFFICES CATHOLIC PERSONS COULD NOT THE 1789 FRENCH LIST OF HUMAN RIGHTS WAS ADOPTED BY THE PATRIOT GOVERNMENT THE NEW DUTCH CONSTITUTION STIPULATED EQUAL RIGHTS BEFORE THE LAW IRRESPECTIVE OF RELIGION AFTER 1815 OFFICES EQUAL RIGHTS FOR PERSONS OF VARIOUS RELIGIONS BECAME PART OF THE DUTCH CONSITITUTION DUTCH FAMILY LAW AND PENAL LAW WERE NEAR-TRANSLATIONS OF THE CODE PENAL AND THE CODE CIVIL FAMILY LAW TOOK MARRIAGE OUT OFF THE JURISDICTION OF THE CHURCHES PENAL LAW DID NOT PUNISH SEX BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS OF THE SAME SEX WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM TO FOUND RELIGIOUS DENOMINATIONS VARIOUS KINDS OF ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS BROKE AWAY FROM THE OLD MAINSTREAM PROTESTANT CHURCH TO FORM THIS HAPPENED IN 1834, 1886, 1946 AND 2005 LEADING TO VARIOUS RE-REFORMED CHURCHES NEXT TO THE OLD REFORMED CHURCH FROM 1870 ONWARDS DUTCH POLITICS WAS IN DEADLOCK WITH TWO STRONGLY DIVISIVE ISSUES GENERAL SUFFRAGE AND FULL STATE FUNDING OF RELIGIOUS PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 1917 THE DEADLOCK WAS RESOLVED BY LOG ROLLING BETWEEN TWO OF THREE EQUALLY STRONG POLITICAL BLOCS GENERAL FUNDING SUFFRAGE RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS STRONGLY DIVISIVE ISSUES SOCIALISTS STRONGLY NEUTRAL IN FAVOR PROTESTANTS NEUTRAL STRONGLY + CATHOLICS IN FAVOR LIBERALS AGAINST AGAINST GENERAL SUFFRAGE COMPLETED THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS BUT WHAT EFFECTS DID THE LAW HAVE THAT FUNDS RELIGIOUS AND STATE SCHOOLS EQUALLY? EFFECTS THAT GO TEMPORARILY AGAINST NISBET’S MODERNIZATION HYPOTHESIS THE INDUSTRIAL AND DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS MAKE FOR MORE OPEN CLASSES AND A DECLINE OF THE SACRED WHO BELIEVES THAT SECULARITY WILL INCREASE WHEN SCHOOLS BECOME RELIGIOUS?! INDEED, IN THE NETHERLANDS CATHOLICS AND PROTESTANTS NOT ONLY HAD THEIR OWN PRIMARY SCHOOLS THEY ALSO FOUNDED OTHER PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATIONS CATHOLICS PROTESTANTS SOCIALISTS BECOME RELIGIOUS?! NEWSPAPER 1845 1872 1900 POLITICAL PARTY 1904 1878 1881 LABOR UNION 1909 1908 1893 UNIVERSITY 1923 1880 NEVER BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION 1925 1924 1925 * IN 1965 THE CATHOLIC NEWSPAPER BECAME INDEPENDENT OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH * IN THE MID 1970s THE SOCIALIST NEWSPAPER CLOSED DOWN AFTER A STRING OF ELECTORAL LOSSES * IN 1977 THE CATHOLIC PARTY MERGED WITH THE TWO LARGEST PROTESTANT PARTIES * IN 1982 THE SOCIALIST LABOUR UNION AND THE CATHOLIC LABOUR UNION MERGED * BUT ALREADY IN THE MID 1950s THE PILLARS BEGAN TO BE UNDERMINED BY MORE RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES ODDS RATIO’S FOR BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR NOT AND VOTING FOR A CONFESSIONAL PARTY OR NOT 1946 63,7 1956 35,5 1967 25,1 1971 24,0 1972 28,6 1977 14,0 1981 21,7 1982 19,0 1986 7,8 1989 9,3 1994 13,6 1998 25,9 THE RELIGIOUS PARTIES NOT ONLY DECLINED BECAUSE OF FEWER RELIGIOUS PERSONS RELIGIOUS PERSONS BEGAN TO VOTE FOR NON-RELIGIOUS PARTIES (AND NOW SOMETIMES THE OTHER WAY AROUND) THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION FOR A CONFESSIONAL PARTY OR NOT If the members of church x have been to the school of that denomination, read its newspaper, listen to its radio programs, watch its television programs, vote for its party, belong to its labor union and marry within this church And if this holds for the members of the other denominations in a society too THEN THE MEMBERS OF THIS SOCIETY MAT BE CALLED STRONGLY INTEGRATED INTO THEIR OWN RELIGIOUS GROUPS BUT THE COHESION OF THIS SOCIETY IS WEAK The decline of pillarization increased Dutch cohesion THE HYPOTHESIS EMBODIED IN THE INTEGRATION-COHESION PARADOX IS NOT A TAUTOLOGY SINCE THERE ARE INDEPENDENT INDICATORS FOR SOCIETAL COHESION SUCH AS * THE NUMBERS OF MONTHS IT TAKES AFTER AN ELECTION TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT * THE CHANCES FOR A GOVERNMENT TO FALL BEFORE ITS TIME HAS RUN OUT PUTNAM BURIED THE SUBSTANTIVELY INTERESTING PARADOX OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL INTEGRATION AND LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION WITH THE EXPRESSIONS ‘BONDING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ AND ‘BRIDGING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ IN BOWLING ALONE PUTNAM SHOULD NOW WRITE BOWLING APART DID SCHNAPPER SEE THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION IN QU’EST-QUE L’INTEGRATION? BACK TO THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION FOR THE NETHERLANDS DID RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS WEAKEN COHESION OF DUTCH SOCIETY? DID THEY STRENGTHEN PILLARIZATION? DID THEY MAKE FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY? YEARS AND PERCENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL PUPILS IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS ADMINISTRATIVE DATA 2000 68 FROM MACRO-DATA TO MICRO DATA SCHOOLS YEAR OF BIRTH, RELIGION OF PARENTS, TYPE OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ATTENDED RETROSPECTIVE DATA FROM THE NETHERLANDS’ FAMILY SURVEYS 1993, 1998 AND 2000 cath parents prot parents nonrel parentscath schools prot schools public schools 19xx-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1983 91 94 95 91 80 61 73 73 76 73 78 80 76 67 61 NON-RELIOUS PARENTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS SUPPOSEDLY FOR THEIR QUALITY – AND FEW MIGRANT PUPILS Take religious homogamy as an indicator of the sacred SCHOOLS Religious schools should make for more religious homogamy and should counter a trend towards less religious homogamy occasioned by jobs in factories (where denominations mix) Apply this opportunities hypothesis Under the condition that religious school attendance rose most in the 1920s and 1930s The tendency to marry within one’s own religion will increase until the 1950s and then will decline Log odds ratio’s for Protestants marrying Catholics in the Netherlands and two large Dutch municipalities time series of administrative data A DETAILED PICTURE OBTAINED BY LOGLINEAR MODELS AND SPLITTING THE PROTESTANTS INTO THE REFORMED AND THE BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED 1955 AS THE WATERSHED THE HYPOTHESIS THAT AN INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE OF RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS MAKES FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY IS UPHELD AS WELL AS THE HYPOTHESIS THAT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS CANNOT WIPE OUT THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED SCHOOLS MAKES FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY IS UPHELD FROM MORE MIXED MARRIAGES AS AN INDICATOR OF SECULARIZATION TO A DECLINE IN CHURCH MEMBERSHIP AS AN INDICATOR OF IT WHY A DECLINE IN THE NETHERLANDS IN BELONGING TO ANY RELIGION? BETWEEN 1960 AND 1971 THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS INCREASED SLIGHTLY MISLEADING CROSS-SECTIONAL RATES GO AFTER EVENT-HISTORY MODELS THE PIVOTAL SURVEY QUESTIONS SLIGHTLY * First ask persons whether they now count themselves as belonging to a denomination if no * Then ask persons whether or not their parents brought them up in a denomination if yes * Then ask persons to mention the year they stopped considering themselves as belonging to that denomination * Also ascertain the educational histories of persons In this way we could run discrete-time event-history models for leaving church with education as a time-dependent co-variate and we could avoid the causal difficulties of the cross-sectional relation for adults between religion and education MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION TERMS FOR YEAR AND DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT DIFFER BETWEEN DENOMINATIONS PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER CHURCH LEAVING CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT THE MORE NON-RELIGOUS PERSONS THERE ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY IS A RELIGIOUS PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO LEAVE CHURCH NOTE THAT WE CIRCUMVENT THE DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS IMPOSSIBILITY OF STATISTICALLY DISTINGUISHING EFFECTS OF AGE, COHORT AND PERIOD BY BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES ++ IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS PERSON’S EDUCATION DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THE PROVINCE WHERE THIS PERSON LIVES THE MORE LIKELY THIS PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE THE MAIN EFFECT OF EDUCATION DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF LEAVING HOME AND EDUCATION PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS WHEN THEY LEAVE HOME AND CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE DUTCH RESEARCH ONLY ABOUT BELONGING? DAVIE’S POINT OF BELIEVING WITHOUT BELONGING IS MISLEADING SINCE AT LEAST IN THE NETHERLANDS BELIEF IS DECLINING TOO AND SINCE NON-AFFILIATION SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS BELIEF (the mirror image of Durkheim's hypotheses that integration into a group makes for living up to its norms and that rites reinforce beliefs) INDEED, THE SURVEY QUESTION OF THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS AND DAVIES’ FINDINGS DO YOU BELIEVE IN GOD OR A HIGHER POWER? HAS A LITTLE-NOTICED BUILT-IN TENDENCY TO UNDERSTATE SECULARIZATION NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE WORD OR BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE QUESTION REFERS TO SOME GOD NOT TO THE GOD OF CHRISTIANITY THE VARIOUS FINDINGS THAT DUTCH SOCIETY CONTINUES TO BE SECULARIZING WITH EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS THE PROPELLER HAS BEEN MET WITH DISBELIEF BY SOCIOLOGISTS LIKE STARK WHO PREACH RATIONAL CHOICE MARKET THEORIES Greeley once took religiously mixed marriages as indicating secularization Now Greeley no longer does MARKET THEORIES OF RELIGION ONLY SEE COMPETITION BETWEEN RELIGIONS * I HOLD THAT RELIGIONS COMPETE WITH EDUCATION * I HOLD THAT COMPETITION IS THERE EVEN IF EDUCATION TAKES PLACE IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS * I HOLD THAT RELIGION LOOSES OUT IF EDUCATION EXPANDS IN THE WAKE OF CONTINUING (POST)INDUSTRIALIZATION IS THERE NOTHING IN THE CURRENT MARKET CRITICISMS OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION MAKES FOR SECULARIZATION? THE MOST RELIGIOUS PERSONS IN THE NETHERLANDS ARE THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY ARE SOMETIMES ACTIVE WITHIN THE MAINSTREAM REFORMED CHURCH BUT MORE OFTEN BELONG TO SMALL BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED CHURCHES WE CALL ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS PERSONS WHO READ THE BIBLE IN THE 1632 TRANSLATION AND ADHERE TO THE ARTICLES OF FAITH OF THE HEIDELBERG CONFESSION THEY VOTE FOR A POLITICAL PARTY WHICH HAS BEEN GETTING TWO PERCENT OF THE VOTE SINCE WORLD WAR TWO SINCE 1973 THEY HAVE THEIR OWN BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO THEIR OWN STATE-FUNDED SECUNDARY SCHOOLS DO DUTCH ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS SECULARIZE AND IF YES DOES EDUCATION HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT? DUTCH LAWS DO NOT REQUIRE VACCINATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES NON-VACCIONATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES IS WIDESPREAD AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY HOLD THAT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE INTERFERES WITH GOD’S PLAN FOR EVERY PERSON DOES AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS FATHER’S EDUCATION RAISE THE CHANCES OF CHILD VACCINATION? AND DOES MOTHER’S EDUCATION DO SO TOO? THE NETHERLANDS ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE VOTING STATISTICS HAS A BIBLE BELT AND ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICS IN THIS AREA VACCINATION RATES ARE LOWER IN ALL MUNICIPALITIES WHERE THE NON-VACCINATION RATE ONCE WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY THE NON-VACCINATION RATE NOW IS LOWER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY WHICH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST NOW SOME ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS HAVE THEIR CHILDREN VACCINATED APART FROM AGGREGATE DATA WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY WE STUDIED INDIVIDUAL DATA WE COLLECTED THEM BY INTERVIEWING IN 2002 AT AN ORTHODOX PROTESTANT SECUNDARY SCHOOL IN ROTTERDAM HELP FROM THE RELIGION-AND-SOCIETY TEACHER WE ASKED STUDENTS WHETHER THEY WERE VACCINATED OR NOT TABLE COMES FROM A MASTER THESIS MODEL 1 MODEL 2 WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY MODEL 3 MODEL 4 MODEL 5 N 311 294 315 306 289 B (s.e.) B (s.e.) B (s.e.) B (s.e.) B (s.e.) Constant 0.83 -0.62 –0.01 0.29 –1.22 Education father 0.16* (0.07) 0.09 (0.08) 0.09 (0.07) 0.03 (0.29) Occupational status father 0.03* (0.01) 0.02 (0.01) Education mother 0.30* (0.09) 0.22* (0.09) 0.21* (0.10) Mother works outside home 0.15 (0.33) –0.29 (0.37) Dutch Reformed 1.65** (0.44) 1.32* (0.39) 1.58** (0.45) Chi2 12.29*(df = 5) 9.21 (df = 8) 6.16 (df = 8) 6.48 (df = 8) 6.48 (df = 8) P (Hosmer and Lemeshow test) 0.03 0.33 0.63 0.59 0.56 Logistic regression of respondent is or is not vaccinated on parental education * = p < 0.05; ** = p < 0.01 IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 2002 WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS WHO ATTEND CHURCH TOGETHER WITH NON-ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THEIR CHILDREN VACCINATED AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS EDUCATION MAKES FOR VACCINATION WITH MOTHER’S EDUCATION HAVING MORE EFFECT THAN FATHER’S EDUCATION ON WITH THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY THE NETHERLANDS AS ULTRA-LIBERAL BECAUSE OF EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND DEPILLARIZATION? ULTRA-LIBERIALISM ENJOYABLE FOR TOURISTS IN COFFEESHOPS AMSTERDAM AND VISIBLE IN THE 2004 MOVIE SIMON BY EDDY TERSTALL * THE WOMANIZER SIMON OWNS COFFEE SHOPS * AFTER THE DISCOVERY OF A BRAIN TUMOR SIMON TAKES EUTHANASIA * HIS TWO CHILDREN WITH A THAI WOMAN *ARE ADOPTED BY A GAY COUPLE * WITH SIMON ATTENDING THEIR MARRIAGE AS HIS LAST SOCIAL EVENT WHAT IS TRUE OF THIS ULTRA-LIBERAL IMAGE? WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY ACCORDING TO CHRISTIANITY SEXUAL ENJOYMENT IS SINFUL DID OPINIONS ABOUT PRE-MARITAL AND EXTRA-MARITAL SEX IN THE NETHERLANDS BECAME MORE LIBERAL BETWEEN 1965-1995? YES, WHY? * BECAUSE THE DUTCH BECAME MORE EDUCATED AND LESS RELIGIOUS? * BECAUSE OF THE REPLACEMENT OF COHORTS BROUGHT UP WITH LOW DIVORCE RATES AND LOW FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION BY COHORTS GROWING UP WITH HIGHER DIVORCE RATES AND HIGHER FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION? * OR BECAUSE OF TIME-PERIOD EFFECTS WHICH AFFECT ALL COHORTS ALIKE? KRAAYKAMP’S WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTYJMF 2002 FINDINGS OBTAINED BY STACKING SEVEN CROSS-SECTIONAL FILES INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND RELIGION MAKE COHORT EFFECTS ON OPINIONS ABOUT PREMARITAL SEX DISAPPEAR THERE IS A BIG LIBERALIZING PERIOD EFFECT COHORT EFFECTS ON OPINIONS ABOUT EXTRA-MARITAL SEX PERSIST WHEN INTRODUCING EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND RELIGION THE PERIOD EFFECT ON OPINIONS ABOUT EXTRA-MARITAL SEX IS DE-LIBERALIZING MORE ABOUT ULTRA-LIBERALISM WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY DUTCH LAWS ABOUT DIVORCE, ABORTION, SOFT DRUGS AND EUTHANASIA WERE NOT THE FIRST TO BE LIBERALIZED IN EUROPE DUTCH PRACTICES IN THE 1970s WERE LIBERAL BECAUSE OFFENSES OF THE OLD LAWS WERE NOT PROSECUTED NO PROSECUTION TOOK PLACE BECAUSE OF A STAND-OFF IN PARLIAMENT THE CHRISTIAN PARTY WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT BLOCKED NEW LAWS LATER LAWS LEGALIZED PRACTICES AFTER THE INTRODUCTION OF SAME-SEX PARTNERSHIPS IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1998 GAY MARRIAGE WAS INTRODUCED IN 2001 THESE LAWS WERE PROPOSED BY THE FIRST GOVERNMENT EVER WHICH DID NOT INCLUDE THE LARGEST CHRISTIAN PARTY THEY WERE ACCEPTED BY PARLIAMENT WITH THE MEMBERS OF THE CHRISTIAN PARTIES VOTING AGAINST THIS UNIQUE COALITION DID AWAY WITH THE VETO POWER OF THE CHRISTIAN PARTIES SINCE 1917 WHO IN FAVOUR, WHO AGAINST GAY MARRIAGE? NETHERLANDS IN 1998 FOUR IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR RECENT RESEARCH * ABOLISH GAY MARRIAGE – NEUTRAL – MAINTAIN IT * RELIGION AS MEMBERSHIP AND AS ATTENDANCE * NOT ONLY PERSON’S RELIGION AND EDUCATION ALSO MOTHER’S RELIGION AND EDUCATION * PLUS MOTHER’S ATTITUDE MOTHER’S ATTITUDE MEASURED BY ASKING CHILD FOR RECOLLECTION Gay marriage should be abolished NETHERLANDS IN 1998 % (1) Completely disagree 49.7 65.4 (2) Largely disagree 15.7 (3) Don’t agree or disagree 18.7 18.7 (4) Largely agree 3.8 15.9 (5) Completely agree 12.1 Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003 ANSWERS TO AN EXTREME 2003 SURVEY ITEM OLDER ITEMS DID NOT DIFFERENTIATE ANYMORE NO EFFECT OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION AND RELIGION AFTER BRINGING IN MOTHER’S ATTITUDE TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY WHEN PERSON WAS YOUNG RELIGION HAS LIMITED EFFECT WHEN MEASURED AS MEMBERSHIP MORE SO IF MEASURED AS CHURCH ATTENDANCE CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES PEOPLE MOVE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS ABOLITION EDUCATION MOVES PEOPLE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS MAINTAINANCE MEN MUCH MORE THAN WOMEN IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE Table 4: Importance of the different determinants in explaining attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage (by removing one characteristic from model 5 in table 3b; n=1204) Characteristic removed χ2 loss Educational level mother 0.14 Church membership/attendance mother 1.96 Attitude mother towards homosexuality 50.41** Highest educational level completed 11.25** Field of study 3.55 Church membership 19.25* Religious elementary school 2.28 % Protestants living in COROP area 6.38* % Catholics living in COROP area 2.86 Co-habitation status 7.65 Sex 11.98** Age 1.83 Origin 9.84* Church attendance 53.18** Model χ2 368.72  ~ = p<0.10; * = p<0.05; ** = p<0.01 Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003. Importance of determinants of attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage assessed by removing one characteristic from final model IS A THIRD REVOLUTION explaining attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage (by removing one characteristic from model 5 in table 3b; n=1204) TAKING PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS RIGHT NOW? THE STARTING POINT OF THE THIRD REVOLUTION IS THE OUTCOME OF THE SECOND REVOLUTION THE THIRD REVOLUTION BEGAN WITH THE MURDER OF THE POLITICIAN FORTUYN IN 2002 AND THE MURDER OF THE COLUMNIST VAN GOGH IN 2005 DUTCH SOCIOLOGISTS HAVE STUDIED MIGRATION QUESTIONS SINCE THE EARLY 1980s NOW 300,000 PERSONS FROM TURKEY AND 300,000 FROM MOROC SOCIOLOGISTS HAVE BEEN PRE-OCCUPIED WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT INEQUALITIES BETWEEN MIGRANTS AND NATIVES SOCIOLOGISTS FOR A LONG TIME NEGLECTED QUESTIONS ABOUT MIGRATION AND COHESION GIVEN RESTRICTIVE MIGRATION LAWS MIGRATION AS A POLITICAL ISSUE IS TURNING INTO THE SOCIOLOGICAL ISSUE OF THE FRIENDLY AND HOSTILE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE ISLAMIC INHABITANTS OF THE
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