QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - KSA April 26, 2016

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The Index is has been going up as we expected due to the up-trending nature seen on the short term. Based on the Relative Strength Index on the intraday chart, we might expect some correction as the Index reached the overbought area on that time frame
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  • 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5 Daily Technical Trader – KSA Tuesday, 26 April 2016 Today’s coverage Ticker Price (SAR) 1 st Target KAYAN 6.80 5.80 TASI All Share Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 6,868.09 2.53 555.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 6,850 7,000 7,100 Support 6,700 6,550 6,450 TASI All Share Index Commentary Overview: The Index is has been going up as we expected due to the up-trending nature seen on the short term. Based on the Relative Strength Index on the intraday chart, we might expect some correction as the Index reached the overbought area on that time frame. Expected Resistance Level: 6,850 Expected Support Level: 6,700 TASI (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research TASI Summary Market Indicators 25 Apr 24 Apr %Ch. Value (SAR bn) 10.2 8.2 23.5 Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,574.0 1,533.2 2.7 Volume (mn) 592.9 495.8 19.6 Transactions 178,098 163,011 9.3 Companies Traded 167 167 0.0 Market Breadth 99:65 145:22 – Saudi Equity Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Banking 15,701.13 4.03 76.43 Petrochem 4,594.00 2.42 76.20 Cement 4,533.89 -0.30 61.81 Retail 10,376.17 1.16 64.18 Energy and Utilities 6,063.47 -0.82 64.94 Agriculture and Food 7,951.03 -0.23 51.17 Telecom 1,619.54 3.47 57.87 Insurance 1,292.33 1.95 74.01 Multi-Investment 2,915.63 -1.21 61.15 Industrial Invest. 6,232.32 2.49 78.08 Building and Const. 2,151.41 -0.16 73.01 RE Development 6,556.36 4.27 78.01 Transportation 7,531.33 0.04 69.63 Media & Publishing 2,816.80 0.13 49.92 Hotel and Tourism 10,206.15 1.11 66.31 RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI SAUDI KAYAN 6.80 2.3 87.9 AL RAJHI BANK 61.89 3.8 83.6 SAUDI MINING 35.20 4.4 80.6 BUPA ARABIA 134.29 4.1 77.6 JABAL OMAR DEVEL 66.78 8.3 77.3 RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI TASI (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 5 Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co. Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume Last 6.80 2.26 95,467,610 Resistance/Support Levels (SAR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 7.30 8.00 9.00 Support 6.50 5.80 5.50 Commentary Overview: We sent a buy recommendation on the name on the 6 th of last March and the 14 th of this month. The targets were achieved, and beyond. The price has created a Long- Legged Doji candlestick. This is a sign of stability and maybe a change in the direction of the price into a correction. Expected Price Retreat: SAR5.80 – SAR5.50 A price breach below SAR6.50 triggers the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 5 Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA ADVANCED PETROCH 45.78 43.86 44.43 44.79 45.36 45.93 46.29 46.86 40.06 38.84 43.35 AL ALAMIYA COOP 32.00 31.47 31.66 31.78 31.97 32.16 32.28 32.47 30.74 38.46 48.25 AL RAJHI BANK 61.89 58.13 59.37 60.14 61.38 62.62 63.39 64.63 54.11 52.06 54.05 AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 39.03 37.01 37.81 38.31 39.11 39.91 40.41 41.21 36.43 46.52 63.10 ALANDALUS PROP 21.31 20.77 20.98 21.11 21.32 21.53 21.66 21.87 21.34 N/A N/A ALINMA BANK 14.20 13.40 13.65 13.80 14.05 14.30 14.45 14.70 13.27 13.45 15.65 ALINMA TOKIO MAR 20.49 19.96 20.15 20.27 20.46 20.65 20.77 20.96 20.19 20.29 20.45 ASH-SHARQIYAH 42.10 41.43 41.66 41.80 42.03 42.26 42.40 42.63 41.06 43.03 53.37 BANK AL-JAZIRA 14.29 13.76 13.94 14.04 14.21 14.39 14.49 14.66 13.49 13.83 17.58 BUPA ARABIA 134.29 128.10 130.77 132.42 135.10 137.77 139.42 142.10 113.43 110.59 115.91 CO FOR COOP 88.99 85.50 86.74 87.51 88.75 89.99 90.76 92.00 76.12 73.84 81.01 DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.72 5.37 5.55 5.65 5.82 6.00 6.10 6.27 4.97 5.25 6.20 EMAAR ECONOMIC 15.11 14.54 14.78 14.94 15.19 15.43 15.59 15.84 13.50 12.94 12.04 ETIHAD ETISALAT 29.97 29.46 29.65 29.77 29.96 30.15 30.27 30.46 27.65 26.51 27.75 JABAL OMAR DEVEL 66.78 59.26 61.55 62.97 65.26 67.55 68.97 71.26 55.59 52.68 58.21 KNOWLEDGE ECON 14.82 14.41 14.58 14.68 14.86 15.03 15.13 15.31 13.01 12.97 15.87 MALATH INSURANCE 16.38 15.76 16.01 16.16 16.41 16.66 16.81 17.06 14.76 16.04 20.42 MEDITERRANEAN 24.64 23.28 23.76 24.05 24.53 25.01 25.30 25.78 20.45 20.97 25.11 MOBILE TELECOM 9.00 8.83 8.89 8.93 8.98 9.04 9.08 9.13 7.80 7.51 8.68 NATIONAL COMM 45.63 40.48 42.08 43.07 44.68 46.28 47.27 48.88 40.95 42.98 49.54 NATIONAL SHIPPING 46.28 45.49 45.76 45.93 46.19 46.46 46.63 46.89 39.79 40.18 40.37 RABIGH REFINING 12.87 12.16 12.39 12.53 12.76 12.99 13.13 13.36 10.58 10.59 14.01 SABB TAKAFUL 28.56 26.85 27.58 28.03 28.75 29.48 29.93 30.65 25.39 26.19 33.09 SABIC 85.88 77.29 79.97 81.62 84.29 86.97 88.62 91.29 75.49 74.26 80.17 SAPTCO 12.50 12.13 12.27 12.35 12.48 12.62 12.70 12.83 11.87 12.84 16.97 SASCO 17.14 16.81 16.97 17.06 17.21 17.37 17.46 17.61 16.44 17.24 21.04 SAUDI ARABIAN MI 35.20 32.27 33.18 33.75 34.67 35.58 36.15 37.07 30.67 31.10 32.28 SAUDI CERAMIC 43.52 42.84 43.07 43.21 43.44 43.67 43.81 44.04 38.91 40.37 51.55 SAUDI GROUND 49.90 47.43 48.16 48.61 49.33 50.06 50.51 51.23 43.22 42.51 52.70 SAUDI KAYAN PETR 6.80 6.13 6.40 6.57 6.83 7.10 7.27 7.53 5.17 5.61 7.33 SAUDI PAPER MAN 13.98 13.66 13.77 13.85 13.96 14.07 14.15 14.26 13.80 14.63 16.58 SAUDI PRINTING 20.70 20.37 20.52 20.61 20.77 20.92 21.01 21.17 20.93 21.54 19.59 SAUDI RESEARCH 40.90 40.23 40.50 40.67 40.93 41.20 41.37 41.63 41.32 44.63 31.94 SAUDI TELECOM CO 64.48 59.66 61.28 62.29 63.91 65.53 66.54 68.16 64.92 64.48 64.54 SAUDI TRANSPORT 52.77 50.26 51.12 51.65 52.51 53.37 53.90 54.76 52.04 55.85 58.39 SHAMS 36.53 35.91 36.22 36.40 36.71 37.02 37.20 37.51 36.44 36.33 36.98 THIMAR 33.41 32.74 33.00 33.17 33.44 33.70 33.87 34.14 33.28 34.04 42.16 TIHAMA 37.00 35.87 36.33 36.61 37.07 37.53 37.81 38.27 37.17 32.43 42.13 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 5 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 5 Contacts: Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services. Co WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
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