QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - KSA May 30, 2016

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The Index moved downwards and maybe confirming the uptrend breach downwards. This breach could be confirmed by drop below 6,300. We wait and see as we remain cautious on the current expected direction of the market.
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  • 1. ` COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5 Daily Technical Trader – KSA Monday, 30 May 2016 Today’s Coverage Ticker Price (SAR) 1 st Target MAADEN 37.69 35.50 TASI All Share Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 6,428.39 -0.83 146.5 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 6,450 6,550 6,700 Support 6,300 6,100 6,000 TASI All Share Index Commentary Overview: The Index moved downwards and maybe confirming the uptrend breach downwards. This breach could be confirmed by drop below 6,300. We wait and see as we remain cautious on the current expected direction of the market. Expected Resistance Level: 6,450 Expected Support Level: 6,300 TASI (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research TASI Summary Market Indicators 29 May 26 May %Ch. Value (SAR bn) 3.4 4.0 -16.6 Volume (mn) 171.6 204.7 -16.2 Mkt. Cap. (SAR bn) 1,475.5 1,495.0 -1.3 Market Breadth 57:108 147:20 – Saudi Equity Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Banking 14,280.39 -1.11 35.68 Petrochem 4,405.81 -1.05 48.54 Cement 4,335.10 0.52 43.16 Retail 10,313.90 -1.02 53.27 Energy and Utilities 5,856.24 0.22 39.78 Agriculture and Food 7,549.79 -1.20 38.52 Telecom 1,523.34 -0.37 37.76 Insurance 1,260.37 0.47 48.29 Multi-Investment 2,676.33 0.11 33.29 Industrial Invest. 6,428.98 -1.47 46.82 Building and Const. 1,975.71 -0.86 34.23 RE Development 5,762.67 -0.75 35.03 Transportation 6,920.63 -1.48 33.39 Media & Publishing 2,891.15 -0.49 46.17 Hotel and Tourism 9,739.61 -0.48 33.60 RSI 14 (Over Bought) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) From Page 3 Table Name Close 1D% RSI MOBILE TELECOM 7.68 -2.5 24.3 NATIONAL SHIPPIN 40.56 -1.5 27.7 BANK AL-JAZIRA 12.79 -1.6 29.6 TASI (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 5 Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (MAADEN) Price (SAR) % Ch. Volume Last 37.69 -2.15 1,461,618 Resistance/Support Levels (SAR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 40.30 41.60 43.20 Support 37.30 35.50 33.80 Commentary Overview: The price has created a possible Head and Shoulders formation (seen clearly on the Hourly chart). It is a reversal pattern and this movement should be confirmed to be effective. We expect the confirmation to be set if the price sustains a break below the neckline (just above the SAR57.00) Expected Price Retreat: SAR35.50 – SAR33.80 A sustained breach below SAR37.30 triggers the sell recommendation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  • 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 5 Intraday Fibonacci Sup/Res Levels for the Most Active in Traded Value Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA ADVANCED PETROCH 47.84 47.68 47.76 47.80 47.88 47.96 48.00 48.08 44.74 40.72 42.85 AL ALAMIYA COOP 28.49 27.30 27.72 27.98 28.40 28.82 29.08 29.50 31.67 31.88 44.69 AL RAJHI BANK 57.55 56.52 56.99 57.29 57.77 58.24 58.54 59.02 56.87 53.98 53.48 AL TAYYAR TRAVEL 37.57 35.66 36.34 36.77 37.46 38.14 38.57 39.26 38.48 39.87 56.15 ALANDALUS PROP 20.12 19.67 19.85 19.95 20.12 20.30 20.40 20.57 21.08 N/A N/A ALINMA BANK 13.11 12.90 13.00 13.06 13.15 13.25 13.31 13.40 13.53 13.33 14.65 ALINMA TOKIO MAR 19.03 18.14 18.49 18.70 19.04 19.39 19.60 19.94 20.32 19.52 19.80 ASH-SHARQIYAH 39.46 38.49 38.91 39.17 39.59 40.01 40.27 40.69 41.78 40.02 48.99 BANK AL-JAZIRA 12.79 12.46 12.60 12.68 12.81 12.95 13.03 13.16 13.69 13.25 16.02 BUPA ARABIA 140.60 134.20 136.78 138.37 140.95 143.53 145.12 147.70 125.06 117.09 116.22 CO FOR COOP 86.80 84.93 85.79 86.32 87.18 88.04 88.57 89.43 82.66 76.78 79.33 DAR AL ARKAN REA 5.06 4.99 5.02 5.05 5.09 5.12 5.15 5.19 5.36 5.13 5.82 EMAAR ECONOMIC 13.58 13.09 13.27 13.37 13.54 13.72 13.82 13.99 14.10 13.40 12.14 ETIHAD ETISALAT 27.51 26.97 27.20 27.34 27.57 27.80 27.94 28.17 29.53 26.61 27.35 JABAL OMAR DEVEL 56.45 55.32 55.79 56.09 56.57 57.04 57.34 57.82 59.59 54.38 56.67 KNOWLEDGE ECON 13.41 13.20 13.30 13.36 13.45 13.55 13.61 13.70 14.01 12.78 14.60 MALATH INSURANCE 14.73 14.11 14.36 14.51 14.76 15.01 15.16 15.41 15.75 15.04 18.38 MEDITERRANEAN 20.46 19.95 20.14 20.26 20.45 20.64 20.76 20.95 22.64 20.53 23.26 MOBILE TELECOM 7.68 7.43 7.54 7.61 7.73 7.84 7.91 8.03 8.81 7.58 8.32 NATIONAL COMM 40.38 39.06 39.56 39.86 40.36 40.86 41.16 41.66 41.96 41.12 47.06 NATIONAL SHIPPING 40.56 39.85 40.16 40.35 40.65 40.96 41.15 41.45 43.49 39.86 40.22 RABIGH REFINING 11.78 11.56 11.66 11.71 11.81 11.91 11.96 12.06 11.65 10.55 12.82 SABB TAKAFUL 25.30 24.57 24.87 25.06 25.37 25.67 25.86 26.17 26.60 24.97 31.14 SABIC 81.12 79.21 80.07 80.60 81.46 82.32 82.85 83.71 79.91 74.89 78.71 SAPTCO 12.12 11.91 12.02 12.09 12.21 12.32 12.39 12.51 12.68 11.92 15.44 SASCO 16.15 15.78 15.97 16.09 16.28 16.47 16.59 16.78 16.84 16.09 19.39 SAUDI ARABIAN MI 37.69 36.50 37.03 37.36 37.90 38.43 38.76 39.30 34.22 32.27 32.06 SAUDI CERAMIC 37.59 37.06 37.29 37.43 37.66 37.89 38.03 38.26 40.02 38.57 47.11 SAUDI GROUND 47.97 47.66 47.81 47.90 48.06 48.21 48.30 48.46 46.40 43.58 50.01 SAUDI KAYAN PETR 6.24 6.08 6.16 6.20 6.28 6.36 6.40 6.48 6.00 5.50 6.87 SAUDI PAPER MAN 12.54 12.28 12.41 12.50 12.63 12.76 12.85 12.98 13.80 13.53 15.60 SAUDI PRINTING 19.85 19.48 19.66 19.76 19.93 20.11 20.21 20.38 20.98 20.56 19.96 SAUDI RESEARCH 45.32 43.37 44.25 44.79 45.67 46.55 47.09 47.97 42.73 42.50 35.26 SAUDI TELECOM CO 63.25 62.08 62.47 62.70 63.08 63.47 63.70 64.08 63.25 63.76 63.94 SAUDI TRANSPORT 53.55 52.52 53.09 53.44 54.02 54.59 54.94 55.52 52.40 52.41 56.35 SHAMS 34.18 33.39 33.78 34.01 34.39 34.78 35.01 35.39 36.43 36.03 35.99 THIMAR 31.72 30.64 30.98 31.20 31.54 31.88 32.10 32.44 33.01 32.79 36.99 TIHAMA 34.04 33.08 33.50 33.76 34.18 34.60 34.86 35.28 36.84 34.17 35.60 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given stock price
  • 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 5 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intraday Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  • 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 5 Contacts: Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Youssef Elboghdady QNB Financial Service Acting Head of Trading Head of Institutional Sales & Trading Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6542 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa youssef.elboghdady@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services. Co WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
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