QNBFS Weekly Market Report July 05, 2016

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1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume During the shortened week (3 day week),the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 79.04 points, or…
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  • 1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume During the shortened week (3 day week),the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 79.04 points, or 0.8% during the week to close at 9,964.22. Market capitalization increased by 0.9% to QR537.6 billion (bn) versus QR532.7bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 34 companies ended the week higher, while 6 fell and 4 remained unchanged. Islamic Group Holding (IHGS) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 11.3% on 171,209 shares traded. On the other hand, Zad Holding (ZHCD) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 9.2% on 60 shares traded only. Ezdan Holding Group (ERES), QNB Group (QNBK) and Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) and were the primary contributors to the weekly index gains. ERES was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding 28.0 points to the index. QNBK was the second biggest contributor to the gain, contributing 18.3 points to the index. Moreover, QEWS tacked on 10.9 points to the index. On the other hand, Qatar Insurance Co. (QATI) deleted 10.3 from the index. Trading value during the week decreased by 54.5% to reach QR274.0 million (mn) versus QR602.3mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 29.7% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 27.8% of the total trading value. QEWS was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR33.4mn. Trading volume decreased by 68.3% to reach 5.9mn shares versus 18.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 56.4% to reach 4,546 transactions versus 10,419 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 27.9%, followed by the Industrials sector, which accounted for 20.9% of the overall trading volume. Gulf International Services (GISS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 626,808mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net buying of QR37.3mn vs. buying of QR79.0mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR31.2mn vs. net selling of QR30.1mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bullish for the week with net buying of QR780,779 vs. net selling of QR13.6mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR6.9mn vs. net selling of QR35.3mn the week before. In 2016 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$455mn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended July 05 , 2016 Week ended June 30 , 2016 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 274.0 602.3 (54.5) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 537,551.4 532,704.2 0.9 Volume (mn) 5.9 18.7 (68.3) Number of Transactions 4,546 10,419 (56.4) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 34:6 11:32 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 16,121.51 0.8 0.8 (0.6) ALL Share Index 2,775.10 0.9 0.9 (0.1) Banks and Financial Services 2,690.53 0.9 0.9 (4.1) Industrials 3,062.36 1.3 1.3 (3.9) Transportation 2,482.97 0.5 0.5 2.1 Real Estate 2,526.36 1.5 1.5 8.3 Insurance 3,976.01 (2.3) (2.3) (1.4) Telecoms 1,111.10 1.0 1.0 12.6 Consumer Goods & Services 6,512.86 1.6 1.6 8.5 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,866.00 1.1 1.1 0.3 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 9,964.26 0.8 0.8 (4.5) 75.26 147,611.6 13.5 1.5 4.1 Dubai# 3,371.22 1.8 1.8 7.0 174.60 89,954.0 11.3 1.2 4.2 Abu Dhabi# 4,575.84 1.7 1.7 6.2 71.08 121,467.8 12.1 1.5 5.3 Saudi Arabia## 6,499.88 (0.8) 0.8 (6.0) 1,139.01 398,465.1 15.0 1.5 3.8 Kuwait# 5,389.60 0.5 0.5 (4.0) 39.12 80,132.5 17.9 1.0 4.5 Oman# 5,811.82 0.6 0.6 7.5 11.15 23,092.2 11.0 1.3 4.4 Bahrain 1,152.49 3.1 3.1 (5.2) 7.23 17,703.0 9.6 0.4 4.7 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; #Data as of July 04, 2016, ## Data as of June 30, 2016) 9,924.47 9,980.11 9,964.26 0 1,250,000 2,500,000 9,890 9,940 9,990 3-Jul 4-Jul 5-Jul Volume QSEIndex 3.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% (0.8%)(2.0%) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Bahrain Dubai AbuDhabi Qatar(QSE)* Oman Kuwait SaudiArabia
  • 2. Page 2 of 6 News Economic News & Corporate News  QCB to offer QR1.55bn T-bills in auction – According to sources, Qatar Central Bank (QCB) will offer QR1.55bn of Treasury bills in an auction on July 11. The offer comprises QR550mn of three- month bills, QR500mn of six-month bills and QR500mn of nine- month bills. Results of the auction will be announced on July 12. (Zawya)  CBQ appoints new CEO – The Board of Directors of Commercial Bank (CBQK) appointed Joseph Abraham as the new CEO. He succeeds Abdulla Saleh Al Raisi, who has been promoted as Advisor to the Board of Directors. Abraham is a seasoned banking professional with experience in both developed and emerging markets. Before joining CBQ, he was CEO of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group Indonesia based in Jakarta, a position he served since 2008. (Peninsula Qatar)  BRES reports QR549mn net profit in 2Q2016 – Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) reported a 15.7% QoQ decline in net profit to QR549.1mn in 2Q2016. However, on YoY basis, the net profit surged 184.5%. The company’s rental income grew marginally by 2.1% QoQ to QR273.7mn in 2Q2016. Earnings per share came in at QR1.42 in 2Q2016 as compared to QR1.67 in 1Q2016 (QR0.50 in 2Q2015). (QSE, QNBFS Research)  MARK to disclose semi-annual financials on July 19 – Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) has announced that it will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 19, 2016. (QSE)  QIBK to disclose semi-annual financials on July 18 – Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) announced that it will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 18, 2016. (QSE)  ABQK to disclose semi-annual financials on July 20 – Ahli Bank (ABQK) announced that it intends to disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 20, 2016. (QSE)  KCBK to disclose semi-annual financials on July 20 – Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK) will disclose the financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 20, 2016. (QSE)  ERES to announce semi-annual financials on July 27 – Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) announced that it will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 27, 2016. (QSE)  QISI to announce semi-annual financials on August 10 – Qatar Islamic Insurance (QISI) will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on August 10, 2016. (QSE)  IHGS to announce semi-annual financials on July 19 – Islamic Holding (IHGS) will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 19, 2016. (QSE)  NLCS to disclose semi-annual financials on July 21 – National Leasing (NLCS) will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 21, 2016. (QSE)  QIMD to announce semi-annual financials on July 26 – Qatar Industrial Manufacturing (QIMD) announced that it will disclose the reviewed financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2016 on July 26, 2016. (QSE)  BMI: Qatari LNG best positioned to weather downturn – BMI Research senior oil & gas Analyst Emma Richards has said that the Qatari LNG has among the “lowest breakeven” prices globally. So, the country is among those exporters “best positioned” to withstand the downturn. She said Qatar is “relatively well- contracted” in its LNG portfolio, with the bulk of its contract volumes flowing to Asia. Richards said Asia contract prices are oil- linked and will benefit from a sustained recovery in the price of crude. However, as the supply-demand balance in its core Asia market has deteriorated, Qatar has sent increasing cargoes to Europe, in particular to the UK. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatargas and RWEST in deal for LNG delivery to Europe – German utility RWE Supply & Trading (RWEST) has signed a seven-and-a- half-year deal with Qatargas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries to Europe. Under the deal, financial details of which were not given, Qatargas will deliver up to 1.1mn tons of LNG a year to RWEST. (Reuters)  Qatargas to supply 1.3mn tons LNG annually to Pakistan – Qatargas announced a long-term Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Global Energy Infrastructure Limited (GEIL) to meet the growing demand for clean energy in Pakistan. Under the terms of the agreement, Qatargas will supply 1.3mn tons per annum of LNG to Pakistan for 20 years, with provisions allowing the volume to increase to 2.3mn tons per annum. The LNG will be supplied from Qatargas 2, with the first cargo expected to be delivered to Pakistan in 2018 by Qatargas-chartered Q-Flex vessels. (GulfBase.com)  MDPS: Qatar’s industrial sector index increases in April – Data released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) has revealed that the general monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) of Qatar’s Industrial Sector for April 2016 was estimated at 43.8 points, showing an increase of 1.6% as compared to the PPI index of March 2016. The surge in the index was largely due to the improvement in the performance of the Mining sector (which includes crude oil and natural gas), and the Manufacturing sector. The PPI, like other price indices, measures the average changes in the prices of industrial goods received by domestic producers for their output. The index covers goods relating to the Mining sector (weight: 72.7%), Electricity & Water (0.5%), and the Manufacturing sector (weight: 26.8%). The Mining sector PPI of April 2016 showed a rise of 1.1% as compared to the PPI of March 2016. The rise in the index was primarily attributed to the increase in prices of “crude petroleum and natural gas” by 1.3%. (Peninsula Qatar)  MDPS: Qatar population drops 4.3% to 2.47mn – According to the information released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS), Qatari population at June-end 2016 declined 4.3% to 2,477,113, from that of May 31, 2016, while it increased 5.7 % as compared to June 2015. The latest figure does not include Qataris and expatriates (with residency permits), who were outside the country on June 30, 2016. Out of the population of 2,477,113, a total of 1,899,563 were males, and 577,550 females. The total population at the end of May 2016 was 2,587,564, which marked an all-time high, with 1,956,424 males and 631,140 females. A nominal dip in the population is usual during the peak summer months of June to August when many residents travel outside the country. (Gulf-Times.com)
  • 3. Page 3 of 6 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 11.3% 5.8% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% Islamic Holding Group MannaiCorp. Qatari Investors Group Widam Food Co. Qatar & Oman Investment -9.2% -5.9% -1.8% -0.5% -0.4% -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% Zad Holding Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance Doha Bank 33.4 28.2 23.9 22.9 17.1 0.0 12.0 24.0 36.0 Qatar Electricity and Water QNB Group Qatar Fuel Gulf International Services Widam Food Co. 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 Gulf International Services Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real Estate Ezdan Real Estate Qatar First Bank 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 37.91% 40.44% 9.72% 21.09% 17.15% 16.87% 35.22% 21.60% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 130 143 169 105 (38) 38 (50) - 50 100 150 200 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QSE Index barely moved this shortened week before the Eid holidays and closed up 0.8% at 9,964.26. Weak volume continues and the Index has resistance at the 100-day moving average at 10,015. We see a second resistance at the 10,500 levels and a short-term support level at 9,500. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Page 5 of 6 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (July 05) % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 141.70 1.21 (2.83) 118,982 10.4 2.0 2.5 Qatar Islamic Bank 97.00 1.04 (9.09) 22,920 11.3 1.5 4.4 Commercial Bank of Qatar 37.05 0.14 (19.28) 12,102 11.3 0.9 8.1 Doha Bank 35.20 (0.42) (20.90) 9,095 7.7 1.0 8.5 Al Ahli Bank 41.50 1.97 (5.37) 7,918 12.3 1.8 3.6 Qatar International Islamic Bank 62.40 1.46 (2.95) 9,445 11.9 1.8 6.4 Masraf Al Rayan 34.10 0.29 (9.31) 25,575 12.2 2.2 5.1 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 16.20 0.56 (9.85) 5,832 9.2 0.9 6.1 Qatar First Bank 11.46 0.61 N/A 2,292 N/A N/A N/A National Leasing 17.70 1.43 25.53 876 N/A 0.9 2.8 Dlala Holding 24.54 0.49 32.72 697 N/A 2.1 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 11.22 3.89 (8.78) 353 26.7 1.1 5.3 Islamic Holding Group 69.00 11.29 (12.33) 391 112.6 4.8 2.2 Banking and Financial Services 216,479 Zad Holding 82.10 (9.18) (3.18) 1,074 11.2 1.3 4.8 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 11.50 2.68 (16.18) 133 N/A 1.3 N/A Salam International Investment 11.32 1.07 (4.23) 1,294 11.2 0.8 8.8 Medicare Group 94.90 2.04 (20.45) 2,671 18.4 2.8 1.9 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 32.50 0.00 (4.41) 204 15.2 1.6 4.6 Qatar Fuel 154.60 2.32 13.20 14,102 11.2 2.2 4.9 Widam Food Co. 64.70 5.03 22.54 1,165 15.0 4.1 4.2 Al Meera Consumer Goods 214.90 1.75 (2.32) 4,298 26.0 3.4 4.2 Consumer Goods and Services 24,940 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 42.20 2.43 5.90 2,005 10.8 1.4 7.1 Qatar National Cement 85.90 0.82 (7.36) 5,103 11.1 1.7 4.2 Industries Qatar 98.20 0.20 (11.61) 59,411 14.2 1.9 5.1 Qatari Investors Group 48.50 5.32 28.65 6,030 22.9 2.6 2.6 Qatar Electricity and Water 213.00 2.40 (1.57) 23,430 15.6 3.4 3.5 Mannai Corp. 89.90 5.76 (5.67) 4,101 8.3 1.8 5.6 Aamal 12.98 0.70 (7.22) 8,177 12.9 1.1 N/A Gulf International Services 36.60 0.00 (28.93) 6,802 13.0 1.8 2.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 18.70 0.00 (3.61) 23,493 19.7 1.7 3.7 Industrials 138,553 Qatar Insurance 72.40 (1.76) 4.13 17,458 14.4 2.6 2.9 Doha Insurance 19.50 (0.51) (7.14) 975 9.0 0.9 5.1 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 46.10 (5.92) (0.76) 4,034 4.5 0.7 3.0 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 24.30 (0.41) (20.33) 620 20.6 1.1 4.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 58.00 0.00 (19.44) 870 12.3 2.9 6.9 Insurance 23,958 United Development 19.28 0.52 (7.08) 6,827 9.9 0.6 7.8 Barw a Real Estate 33.35 1.06 (16.63) 12,977 16.0 0.7 6.6 Ezdan Real Estate 18.25 1.78 14.78 48,408 27.7 1.6 2.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 13.37 1.29 (1.14) 1,474 13.2 1.0 N/A Real Estate 69,686 Ooredoo 89.30 1.02 19.07 28,605 11.5 1.3 3.4 Vodafone Qatar 10.69 1.04 (15.83) 9,037 N/A 1.8 2.0 Telecoms 37,642 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 87.90 0.23 (7.47) 10,067 9.2 0.8 5.7 Gulf Warehousing 58.50 1.39 2.81 3,428 15.9 2.5 2.6 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 23.10 0.43 (1.07) 12,798 12.8 3.9 5.4 Transportation 26,293 Qatar Exchange 537,551
  • 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6
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