QNBFS Weekly Market Report July 21, 2016

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1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 105.73 points, or 1.0% during the week to close at…
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  • 1. ` Page 1 of 6 Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by 105.73 points, or 1.0% during the week to close at 10,534.40. Market capitalization increased by 1.0% to QR565.5 billion (bn) versus QR559.7 at the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 30 companies ended the week higher, while 13 fell and 1 remained unchanged. Qatar German Co. For Medical Devices (QGMD) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 7.5% on 878,874 shares traded. On the other hand, Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 4.8% on 1.5 million (mn) shares traded. Industries Qatar (IQCD), Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gains. IQCD was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding 45.1 points to the index. ERES was the second biggest contributor to the gain, contributing 39.4 points to the index. Moreover, MARK tacked on 9.9 points to the index. On the other hand, CBQK contributed negatively to the index, erasing 16.2 points from the index. Trading value during the week increased by 62.3% to reach QR1.4bn versus QR876.7mn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 36.1% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 22.0% of the total trading value. QNB Group (QNBK) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR172.0mn. Trading volume increased by 57.3% to reach 36.5mn shares versus 23.2mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 41.6% to reach 20,286 transactions versus 14,331 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 29.8%, followed by the Real Estate sector, which accounted for 26.6% of the overall trading volume. ERES was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 4.2mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish during the week with net buying of QR178.6mn vs. buying of QR103.2mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR49.1mn vs. net selling of QR27.8mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR29.6mn vs. net selling of QR28.4mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR198.2mn vs. net selling of QR47.1mn the week before. In 2016 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$559mn worth of Qatari equities. Market Indicators Week ended July 21 , 2016 Week ended July 14 , 2016 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,422.5 876.7 62.3 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 565,478.6 559,687.6 1.0 Volume (mn) 36.5 23.2 57.3 Number of Transactions 20,286 14,331 41.6 Companies Traded 44 43 2.3 Market Breadth 30:13 36:7 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 17,043.96 1.0 6.6 5.1 ALL Share Index 2,916.22 1.0 6.0 5.0 Banks and Financial Services 2,819.31 (0.1) 5.7 0.5 Industrials 3,218.75 2.4 6.5 1.0 Transportation 2,556.97 0.9 3.5 5.2 Real Estate 2,691.51 1.8 8.2 15.4 Insurance 4,286.94 0.1 5.3 6.3 Telecoms 1,168.53 1.5 6.2 18.5 Consumer Goods & Services 6,612.58 1.4 3.2 10.2 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,072.40 2.1 6.5 5.6 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 10,534.40 1.0 6.6 1.0 728.95 155,280.4 14.4 1.6 3.9 Dubai 3,544.21 2.1 7.0 12.5 700.80 93,419.6# 12.5 1.4 4.2 Abu Dhabi 4,589.84 0.3 2.0 6.6 396.86 123,348.1 12.3 1.5 5.3 Saudi Arabia# 6,630.61 (0.5) 2.0 (4.1) 4,755.51 407,010.8 15.2 1.5 3.7 Kuwait 5,391.20 0.0 0.5 (4.0) 148.51 80,119.4 18.1 1.0 4.4 Oman 5,818.14 (0.7) 0.7 7.6 70.40 23,113.8 9.4 1.2 5.0 Bahrain 1,160.34 (1.1) 3.8 (4.6) 12.84 17,922.7 9.6 0.4 4.7 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; #Data as of July 20, 2016) 10,418.83 10,585.08 10,648.58 10,591.60 10,534.40 0 7,000,000 14,000,000 10,300 10,500 10,700 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul Volume QSEIndex 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% (0.5%) (0.7%) (1.1%)(1.5%) 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% Dubai Qatar(QSE)* AbuDhabi Kuwait SaudiArabia Oman Bahrain
  • 2. Page 2 of 6 News Economic News  CBQK’s bottom-line drops 26.3% QoQ in 2Q2016, misses our estimate – Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) reported a net profit of QR212.3mn, falling short of expectations as well as consensus (our estimate of QR320.6mn vs. BBG average of QR321.3mn). The miss was primarily due to a sharp rise in net provisions and impairments. However, net interest income was in-line at QR613.3mn vs. our estimate of QR625.4mn (-1.9% variation). Moreover, total revenue was broadly in-line at QR986.3mn vs. our estimate of QR944.3mn (+4.4% variation). Net profit decreased QoQ, mainly driven by provisions and impairments; on a YoY basis numbers were weak across the board. CBQK reported a net profit of QR212.3mn, dropping by 26.3% QoQ (down 62.9% YoY). The drop in profitability was perpetuated by a 21.6% QoQ (+76.1% YoY) surge in provisions and impairments. Moreover, net interest income (-1.8% QoQ) and fees (-9.1% QoQ, -37.9% YoY) displayed weakness. On the other hand, income from associates markedly improved QoQ, increasing to QR83.0mn vs. QR30.0mn in 1Q2016. CBQK’s net interest margin receded by 4bps (QoQ) and 21bps (YoY) to 2.31%. Provisions remained elevated. The bank booked net provisions and investment impairments of QR373.3mn vs. our estimate of QR200.0mn. Net provisions soared by 33.6% QoQ (+76.1% YoY). Asset quality further deteriorated. NPL ratio increased to 4.81% from 4.50% in 1Q2016 (4.20% in FY2015). On the other hand, the coverage ratio improved to 78.5% from 71.2% at the end of 2015. OPEX improved QoQ, although still inefficient. CBQK reported opex of QR410.1mn, receding by 2.6% QoQ (-3.0% YoY). Thus, cost-to- income improved to 41.6% vs. 43.9% in 1Q2016 (36.8% in 2Q2015). Loans increased. Net loans increased by 2.5% QoQ (+1.0% YTD) to QR77.4bn while deposits were flat QoQ (+3.3% YTD) at QR72.1bn. consequently, the bank’s LDR climbed up to 107% in 2Q2016 vs. 105% in 1Q2016 (110% in 4Q2015). (QNBFS Research, Company financials)  CBQK receives notice from AEH to exercise the put option – The Commercial Bank (CBQK), holding 75% shares of Alternatifbank A.Ş, Turkey, received a notice from Anadolu Endüstri Holding A.Ş.‎ (AEH), to exercise the put option with respect to 192,500,000 registered shares held by AEH in ABank, a subsidiary of CBQK, and accounting for 25% of shares in ABank under the Shareholders Agreement signed with CBQK on July 18, 2013. The share sale value has been calculated at $222.5mn as of the date July 18, 2016 based on the base price method specified in the Shareholders Agreement and the notice on this matter has been advised to CBQK as of the aforementioned date. Completion of the transaction and procedures will be subject to regulatory approvals in Qatar and Turkey. (QSE)  DHBK’s profitability flat QoQ in 2Q2016; bang in-line with our estimate – Doha Bank (DHBK) reported a net profit of QR354.2mn in 2Q2016, implying flat performance and in-line with our estimate of QR348.0mn (variance of +1.8%). However, on YoY basis, the net profit declined 7.1%. The bank’s flat performance was led by a 48.4% drop in provisions. Pre-provision income was down by 11.6% QoQ to QR416.2mn. The bank’s net interest income rose marginally by 1.0% QoQ (up 4.7%YoY) to QR523.6mn; in-line with our estimate of QR513.95mn (+1.9% variation). Net interest margin was flattish QoQ at 2.66% (down 15bps YoY). DHBK’s total revenue receded by 3.9% QoQ on the back of a 13.6% drop in fees & commissions. Net loans declined by 2.5% QoQ and 0.3% YTD to QR55.4bn. On the other hand deposits gained 1.9% QoQ (down 0.7% YTD) to QR52.4bn. As such the bank’s LDR improved, declining to 106% vs. 111% in 1Q2016 (105% in FY2015). It appears that the bank is working on improving its liquidity position. Asset quality improved with the NPL ratio dropping 2.89% vs. 3.38% in 1Q2016 (3.26% in FY2015). We believe DHBK wrote off some bad loans to the tune of ~QR335mn. Capital adequacy ratio reached 16.08% at the end of June 30, 2016. (QNBFS Research, Company financials)  QIBK’s net profit jumps 14.3% QoQ in 2Q2016 – Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) reported net income of QR562.93mn in 2Q2016, growing by 14.3% and 13.8% QoQ and YoY, respectively. Earnings beat our estimate of QR492.45mn (variance of +14.3%) on the back of lower provisions and lower tax and positive minority interest. Excluding these ‘non-operating variables’, core banking income was in-line at QR648.9mn vs. our estimate of QR620.5mn (+4.6% variation). The bank generated net interest and investment income of QR728.9mn (flat QoQ and YoY), inline with our estimate of QR753.9mn. Net fee & commission income grew marginally by 2.0% QoQ (+24.1% YoY) to QR135.45mn. Net Loans increased by 6.0% QoQ (+10.3% YTD) to QR96.57bn and Customer deposits grew by 6.6% QoQ to QR95.31bn. As such QIBK’s LDR remained unchanged 101% in 2Q2016 vs. 102% in 1q2016 (96% in FY2015). QIBK was able to maintain the NPL ratio at less than 1%, one of the lowest in the industry. Further, the bank continued to pursue the conservative impairment policy with a coverage ratio for non-performing financing portfolio at 93% as of June 2016. (QNBFS Research, Company financials)  KCBK reports net profit of QR164.1mn; in-line with our estimate – Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK) reported a net profit of QR164.1mn, growing of 5.1% QoQ and 3.9% YoY, in-line with our estimate of QR159.4mn (variance of +2.9%). KCBK’s bottom-line was driven by a 22.4% QoQ drop in provisions and impairments. The bank reported a net interest income of QR227.1mn (in-line with our estimate of QR229.8mn), exhibiting flat performance (down 2.1% YoY). The bank’s net interest margin declined by 5bps to 1.63% (down 19bps YoY). This is mainly due to higher funding costs as deposits increased by 6.3% QoQ (flat YTD) to QR30.8bn while deposits remained flat at QR35.3bn (+5.7% YTD). As such, this improved KCBK’s liquidity position with the LDR declining to 115% vs. 122% in 1Q2016 (108% in FY2015). Total revenue was down 1.4% QoQ (+2.3% YoY) to QR292.8mn on the back of a decline in investment income. Opex improved, declining by 2.7% QoQ (down 11.5% YoY) to QR92.97mn. Thus KCBK’s cost-to-income ratio declined to 31.8% vs. 32.2% in 1Q2016 (36.7% in 2Q2015). The capital adequacy ratio of the bank, as per Basel III, was at 15.8% at the end of June 2016. The banks NPL ratio was 0.82% at the end of June 2016 as compared to 0.80% at the end of June 2015. (QNBFS Research, Company financials)  MARK reports 4.3% QoQ decline in 2Q2016 – Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) reported a net profit of QR514mn (down 4.3% QoQ, +5.4% YoY), inline with our estimate of QR511.6mn . MARK said it has seen a growth in its total assets to QR88.4bn at the end of 1H2016 compared with QR81.6bn at the end of 1H2015, which represents a growth of 8.3%. The bank’s capital adequacy ratio, using Basel-III standards, reached 18.01% as on 30 June 2016. Non-performing loans (NPL) ratio of 0.08% reflects the banks strong and prudent credit risk management policies and procedures. (QNBFS Research, Company Press Release)
  • 3. Page 3 of 6 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 7.5% 6.8% 6.1% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Industries Qatar -4.8% -4.1% -3.3% -3.1% -2.8% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% Commercial Bank of Qatar Dlala Holding Doha Insurance Islamic Holding Group MannaiCorp. 172.0 122.6 104.9 82.1 73.5 0.0 60.0 120.0 180.0 QNB Group Industries Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Ezdan Real Estate Qatar Insurance 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.0 1.9 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 Ezdan Real Estate Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Mazaya Qatar Gulf International Services 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 30.00% 43.93% 26.77% 23.32% 11.23% 13.31% 32.00% 19.44% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 808 615 957 466 (149) 149 (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QSE Index rose for the second consecutive week and gained around 1% vs the previous week. The index breached its important resistance of 10,500 and managed to close above it. However, it is imperative for the index to stay above it in order to keep its bullish momentum intact. On the flip side, any sustained weakness below 10,500 could drag the index towards 10,300. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are positively poised and are showing no immediate trend reversal signals. The 10,500 support level and the 11,500 resistance level remain to be the immediate levels to watch out for. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Page 5 of 6 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (July 21) % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 150.20 (0.53) 2.99 126,119 10.6 2.0 2.3 Qatar Islamic Bank 103.60 0.58 (2.91) 24,480 11.6 1.6 4.1 Commercial Bank of Qatar 37.05 (4.76) (19.28) 12,102 17.8 0.8 8.1 Doha Bank 36.60 (0.68) (17.75) 9,456 8.1 1.0 8.2 Al Ahli Bank 41.00 2.12 (6.51) 7,823 12.2 1.7 3.7 Qatar International Islamic Bank 64.50 1.57 0.31 9,763 12.3 1.9 6.2 Masraf Al Rayan 35.80 1.13 (4.79) 26,850 12.6 2.3 4.9 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 16.80 1.82 (6.51) 6,048 9.4 0.9 6.0 Qatar First Bank 12.18 0.25 N/A 2,436 N/A N/A N/A National Leasing 17.72 (2.26) 25.67 877 N/A 0.9 2.8 Dlala Holding 24.18 (4.05) 30.77 687 N/A 2.0 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 11.18 (2.27) (9.11) 352 26.6 1.1 5.4 Islamic Holding Group 66.80 (3.05) (15.12) 378 323.7 2.7 2.2 Banking and Financial Services 227,372 Zad Holding 86.00 0.00 1.42 1,125 11.7 1.3 4.6 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 12.55 7.45 (8.53) 145 N/A 1.4 N/A Salam International Investment 11.95 0.17 1.10 1,366 11.8 0.8 8.4 Medicare Group 100.00 5.26 (16.18) 2,814 19.4 2.9 1.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 32.60 0.31 (4.12) 205 15.2 1.6 4.5 Qatar Fuel 154.40 0.39 13.05 14,084 11.2 2.2 4.9 Widam Food Co. 63.90 0.95 21.02 1,150 14.8 4.0 4.2 Al Meera Consumer Goods 220.00 2.85 0.00 4,400 26.7 3.5 4.1 Consumer Goods and Services 25,289 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 42.80 (0.47) 7.40 2,034 11.0 1.5 7.0 Qatar National Cement 87.70 0.34 (5.42) 5,210 11.3 1.7 4.1 Industries Qatar 106.80 4.50 (3.87) 64,614 15.4 2.1 4.7 Qatari Investors Group 51.90 6.13 37.67 6,453 24.5 2.8 2.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 221.60 0.73 2.40 24,376 15.7 3.4 3.4 Mannai Corp. 88.00 (2.76) (7.66) 4,014 8.1 1.7 5.7 Aamal 13.40 1.13 (4.22) 8,442 13.3 1.1 N/A Gulf International Services 37.10 0.27 (27.96) 6,895 13.2 1.8 2.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 19.15 1.86 (1.29) 24,058 20.2 1.8 3.7 Industrials 146,096 Qatar Insurance 79.50 (0.25) 14.35 19,171 16.1 2.5 2.7 Doha Insurance 20.31 (3.29) (3.29) 1,016 9.4 1.0 4.9 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 46.30 0.65 (0.33) 4,052 4.5 0.7 2.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 24.90 3.71 (18.36) 636 21.1 1.2 4.0 Qatar Islamic Insurance 63.00 6.78 (12.50) 945 13.3 3.2 6.4 Insurance 25,818 United Development 19.10 (1.55) (7.95) 6,763 14.5 0.6 7.9 Barw a Real Estate 35.40 1.43 (11.50) 13,775 16.9 0.8 6.2 Ezdan Real Estate 19.65 2.34 23.58 52,122 29.8 1.7 2.5 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 14.34 1.99 6.04 1,581 14.1 1.1 N/A Real Estate 74,241 Ooredoo 93.90 0.97 25.20 30,078 12.1 1.4 3.2 Vodafone Qatar 11.25 3.69 (11.42) 9,511 N/A 1.9 1.9 Telecoms 39,589 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 90.00 1.01 (5.26) 10,307 9.4 0.8 5.6 Gulf Warehousing 59.30 (0.67) 4.22 3,475 16.1 2.5 2.5 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 23.99 1.27 2.74 13,291 13.5 3.8 5.2 Transportation 27,074 Qatar Exchange 565,479
  • 6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representati
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